Swing Trade

I am posting this to illustrate that even though I have sold out of my swing positions in equities for my trading account I am still active in the market. I have no swing trades currently due to the overbought nature of the market. I expect a pull back and will not be buying any stocks on break outs. I buy pullbacks and we have not seen one in a long time.

However, there is always stuff to do in the market and I am trading commodity futures and the US dollar. Here is a screenshot of my last 24 hour swing trade in the dollar. The thinkorSwim ticker symbol is /DX.

I entered the trade yesterday overnight after a large drop in the price on Tuesday. Why did I take the trade? There looked to be a short-term bottoming pattern in the dollar. There is also a gap that formed on Sunday/Monday and I believe it will need to be filled between 80.80 -> 81.00.  So essentially I liked the risk reward so I purchased 2 contracts over the last couple trading sessions. (The green circles shows where I purchased the contracts).

All cash in my trading account. Oh no's!

What a week last week. We saw a huge reversal candlestick on the S&P on Thursday. I pulled the trigger on the last remaining swing trades I had in ATVI*, INTC, KAD and ETFC (Made very little in either of the last two).  But ATVI and INTC were nice quick trades. * I still think ATVI will go to the 12.50 - 13.00 range.  Click image to see my thoughts...

Going "all cash" in my trading account hardly happens with me, matter of fact it's the first time this year. My reason for going all cash? This market is so overbought and I thought that I should begin a new position. CASH. Yes folks, cash is a position. I do not have plans on shorting this raging bull of a market, but I do plan on sitting on my hands and my nice gains. (You can see my gains on the right side so far this year) I just need to see what the market does before I put on any more swing trades.

What will I do now?

Collect dividends in my Roth IRA. - Boring I know.
Add funds in IRA - Hope the market pulls back, I want to buy at cheaper  - Buying cheap is never boring.
Day trade quick daily scalps on the US dollar. (as usual)

50% cash 50% equities

How I allocate funds for Trading, Saving and Investing? Where do I put most of my money?

Saving 10%
Trading 60%
Investing 40%

% Percent of all liquid assets

Half of my holdings is in cash, half  in equities

 These are rounded numbers, but you may get the point. I was suprised when I looked at the numbers and saw that I was sitting on half cash and half equities. It pretty much reflects my personal bias and uncertainty with the market right now. Let me explain.

Savings: The Fed is punishing those who save. You have to tie up your cash for 30 years to get a decent return on your money in a CD. No thanks. So for the immediate future I have very little sitting in my savings. Most of my money is being put to work in my day/swing trading account. Savings account is 10% of total assets.

Bought Pfizer (PFE) and I hope it goes down some more.

 

I have just purchased a few shares of PFE for the long haul and will likely add more down the road. The above chart is a MONTLY chart.

I am plunking this stock into my IRA account and activating a DRIP program (Dividend Reinvestment Program).  If you qualify (and you probably do) then you seriously NEED a Roth IRA. You should at least look into it. It is after tax money that you deposit in your IRA account. The government (as of this blog post) does not tax capital gains or dividends in your roth. All gains such as dividends and profits from selling shares is yours to keep as long as you wait till the apropriate age or "seasoning period" to begin removing the funds for retirement.  Roth IRA info:

Note: By the way this is not an investment recommendation. You should do your own research and seek out a financial advisor before you invest any money in the stock market.

The Dollar is at a crossroads

I mentioned before that my futures contract of choice to trade is the US dollar. Every night I go over my dollar related charts and begin to form a bias for the next trading session be it an afterhours or an intraday trade. I thought I would post a couple charts that are speaking to me this fine Saturday evening.

We are at an important level with the us dollar. If you look at my US dollar chart I mention that we will either break down or our current price is at support and we move higher*. However, before I make a trade I will need to see the price action as it hits this lower trend-line here at $80.00. Does it bounce, or break through?

Play by play dollar trade

Below is a play by play rundown of a typical dollar futures trade. You should be able to click on each screenshot to see the progression of the trade along with any notes written on the chart as the trade was taking place.

1.) Before I place a trade (no matter the trading vehicle) I already know where the support and resistance levels are. This is a short term trade (scalp) but you can essentially do the same thing for a longer term swing trade or investment.

This first chart shows that I bought the dollar on a huge pull back.  I placed the trade on a support line I had mapped out days in advanced. I did not know if the price would ever reach this level, but I map these channels and levels anyway. Then I wait patiently and if  the price hits a support line I buy or sell it looking for a bounce.

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